Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.017163 0.019417 0.021857 0.024696 0.027908 0.031430 0.035588
2025-10-12 0.013757 0.016896 0.020583 0.025234 0.030951 0.037755 0.046479
2025-10-19 0.011947 0.015520 0.019955 0.025872 0.033568 0.043256 0.056405
2025-10-26 0.010369 0.014102 0.018952 0.025723 0.034949 0.047110 0.064408
2025-11-02 0.009218 0.013045 0.018216 0.025727 0.036383 0.051003 0.072662
2025-11-09 0.008147 0.011945 0.017260 0.025259 0.037025 0.053755 0.079461
2025-11-16 0.007486 0.011338 0.016906 0.025560 0.038719 0.058054 0.088777
2025-11-23 0.006792 0.010600 0.016269 0.025349 0.039583 0.061145 0.096486
2025-11-30 0.006395 0.010265 0.016190 0.025951 0.041700 0.066250 0.107683
2025-12-07 0.005735 0.009450 0.015288 0.025161 0.041525 0.067724 0.113168
2025-12-14 0.005242 0.008855 0.014675 0.024766 0.041925 0.070104 0.120273
2025-12-21 0.004746 0.008209 0.013919 0.024058 0.041723 0.071442 0.125679
2025-12-28 0.004597 0.008145 0.014137 0.025037 0.044505 0.078077 0.140919
2026-01-04 0.004388 0.007959 0.014132 0.025627 0.046659 0.083808 0.155082
2026-01-11 0.004207 0.007804 0.014162 0.026273 0.048951 0.089942 0.170480
2026-01-18 0.003924 0.007436 0.013777 0.026121 0.049754 0.093426 0.181201
2026-01-25 0.003689 0.007137 0.013492 0.026125 0.050837 0.097489 0.193345
2026-02-01 0.003412 0.006734 0.012981 0.025650 0.050950 0.099707 0.202038
2026-02-08 0.003257 0.006555 0.012877 0.025956 0.052609 0.105026 0.217359
2026-02-15 0.003053 0.006261 0.012528 0.025741 0.053201 0.108269 0.228688
2026-02-22 0.002956 0.006177 0.012585 0.026353 0.055524 0.115164 0.248204
2026-03-01 0.002719 0.005782 0.011984 0.025550 0.054827 0.115793 0.254397
2026-03-08 0.002541 0.005498 0.011590 0.025149 0.054944 0.118116 0.264435